Check out the ACE-HF propagation software - the latest is version 2.05. ACE-HF is propagation forecasting and modeling for Amateur Radio as well as for Shortwave radio Listening and general HF operation. This software is even used by the military and other clients around the world. This software is developed and maintained by the same engineers that keep VOACAP up-to-date. As a result, this software is the most accurate user interface integrated with VOACAP. CHECK IT OUT, TODAY. This software is the most accurate modeling software available, and is endorsed by NW7US. Read the details to find out why.
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Map, Above: Conditions in the D region of the ionosphere have a dramatic effect on high frequency (HF) communications and low frequency (LF) navigation systems. The global D Region Absorption Predictions (D-RAP) depicts the D region at high latitudes where it is driven by particles as well as low latitudes, where photons cause the prompt changes.
Note: At times, images may appear broken or missing, when SDO is working on the AIA/HMI instruments.
Planetary A-index (Ap): 18
| Planetary K-index (Kp):
Solar Wind: 562 km/s at 11.0 protons/cm3, Bz is 5.0 nT
(Dec 08, 2022 at 1344 UT)
X-ray Solar Flares:
6h hi [C5.8][1256Z 12/07] 24h hi [C5.8][1256Z 12/07]
What is the difference between the CB and Amateur Radio Services, in the USA? Here are some thoughts on the portrayal of the Amateur Radio Service by the Hit TV Series, NCIS, and a clarification of the difference between CB radio and ham radio.
(Skip to timecode 1:33 to bypass the introductory chat and talk about the headset microphone.)
Here is a video introduction to shortwave / HF amateur radio -- what is it that we amateur radio oprators listen to? If you have not yet been introduced to this world, this is a very basic introduction.
If you are using software utilities such as Ace-HF, that require a "smoothed" sunspot number
(Referred to as the SSN), or, the smoothed 10.7-cm Radio Flux Index,
use the following predicted values in this following table:
Predicted SMOOTHED Sunspot Number And Radio Flux Values
With Expected Ranges
At 0805 UTC, on 9 August 2011, a strong magnitude X6.9 X-ray flare -- the strongest yet in this current solar cycle (Cycle 24) -- erupted on the northwestern solar limb. Here is a HD Movie of the event:
Videos of Interest - Space Weather, Solar Dynamics Observatory, STEREO, and more... from the NW7US YouTube Channel. (Click on the small image to launch the video...)
Video: Voyager Finds Magnetic Foam at Solar Systems Edge
Video: Zoom View of Prominence Eruption and X-Ray Flare - M2.5 Magnitude - June 7 2011
Video: X-Ray Flare, Coronal Mass Ejection, Proton Storm - M2.5 Magnitude - June 7 2011 (Close-up of the video, above)
Video: Stunning Close-up View of M3 X-Ray Flare 24 February 2011
Video: On How NCIS TV Show Maligned Amateur Radio Service (Full UHD Version)
What's the difference between CB and amateur (ham) radio?
Video: June 2011 20-meter (14-Mhz) JT65A Coverage Map of NW7US Radio Signal
The NW7US Current Sunspot and Geophysical Activity Report
The observations, prognastications, and comments by NW7US
NW7US is Tomas David Hood, Propagation and Space Weather Columnist
for CQ Communications
More about Background X-rays
The hard X-ray energy present from the wavelengths of 1 to 8 Angstroms provide the most effective ionizing energy throughout all of the ionospheric layers in our atmosphere. The GEOS satellites measure these wavelengths and the resulting measurements are reported as the "background X-ray level" throughout the day. A daily average is reported, as well.
Just like X-ray flares, the background hard X-ray level is measured in watts per square meter (W/m2), reported using the categories, A, B, C, M, and X. These letters are multipliers; each class has a peak flux ten times greater than the preceding one. Within a class there is a linear scale from 1 to 9.
If one records the daily background X-ray levels for the course of a sunspot cycle, one would discover that the background X-ray levels remained at the A class level during the sunspot cycle minumum. During the rise and fall of a solar cycle, the background X-ray energy levels remained mostly in the B range. During peak solar cycle periods, the background energy reached the C and sometimes even M levels.
Armed with this information, can we discover any clues as to the current status of Sunspot Cycle 24? Below is a graph plotting the background hard X-ray energy reported by the GEOS satellites since the end of Sunspot Cycle 22. Clearly, we see a noticeable rise in Cycle 24 activity. We're seeing the energy mostly in the B level more often, supporting the view that Cycle 24 is alive and moving along toward an eventual sunspot cycle peak in several years.
Overall, the monthly average background 'hard' X-ray level is rising (as seen by the following plot), showing a change from deep solar cycle minimum. We are certainly in the rising phase of Sunspot Cycle 24. While it has been a slow up-tick over the last eighteen months, I expect to see a more rapid rise during mid to late 2011.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Covering the period: 28 November - 04 December 2022
Solar activity was at low to moderate (R1-Minor) levels this period. Region 3152 (N27, L=083, class/area Cao/120 on 26 Nov) produced an M1.0/1n at 01/0721 UTC. Region 3157 (N16, L=300, class/area Dso/210 on 04 Dec) produced an M1.2/Sn flare at 03/1741 UTC. A 456 km/s Type II Sweep signature was associated with this event. Numerous C-class activity was also assocated with both of these regions as well as C-class activity from Regions 3151 (S16, L=154, class/area Dao/060 on 24 Nov), 3153 (S17, L=327, class/area Fko/1080 on 04 Dec), 3155 (N23, L=026, class/area Dai/140 on 04 Dec) and 3156 (N25, L=319, class/area Dao/220 on 03 Dec). No Earth-directed CME signatures were detected during the period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 28 Nov and high levels on 29-30 Nov and 01-04 Dec. A peak flux of 17,351 pfu was observed at 03/1740 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity generally ranged from unsettled to active levels throughout the period. Minor storm levels (G1-Minor) were observed on 28-30 Nov and 01 Dec. The field was under the influence of a pair of positive polarity CH HSSs.
Monthly and smoothed sunspot number - The monthly mean sunspot number (blue) and 13-month smoothed monthly sunspot number (red) for the last five cycles. You can see that this current cycle, Cycle 24, is a weak cycle, compared to the last few.
(Click to see actual size)
Daily and monthly sunspot number (last 13 years)
Daily sunspot number (yellow), monthly mean sunspot number (blue), smoothed monthly sunspot number (red) for the last 13 years and 12-month ahead predictions of the monthly smoothed sunspot number:
SC (red dots) : prediction method based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; It is only based on the sunspot number series.
CM (red dashes) : method (from K. Denkmayr and P. Cugnon) combining a regression technique applied to the sunspot number series with the aa geomagnetic index used as a precursor (improved predictions during the minimum phase between solar cycles).
(Click to see actual size)
What is 'Space Weather'? Click on these two information slides to view them in full size:
Active sunspot regions, and plages, identified by SIDC
What is coming
Real Time Solor Wind and Aurora:
On 2022 Dec 08 1351Z: Bz: 7.3 nT
Bx: -0.2 nT | By: -4.1 nT | Total: 8.4 nT
Most recent satellite polar pass:
Centered on // : UTC Aurora Activity Level was at UTC
visit noaa for latest.
This is a video of the simulation from May 27-28, 2011, showing
the Geomagnetic disturbance caused by the solar wind
Outlook: (valid from 1230UT, 07 Dec 2022 until 09 Dec 2022)
07 Dec 2022 10.7-cm Flux: 145 / Ap: 018
08 Dec 2022 10.7-cm Flux: 146 / Ap: 028
09 Dec 2022 10.7-cm Flux: 147 / Ap: 012
Solar Flares: C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) Geo-Disturbance: Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) Solar Proton Event: Quiet
Comment from the SIDC (RWC Belgium): The solar flaring activity was at low level with several C-class flares being detected in the last 24 hours. The largest flare was a C1.3 flare, peaking at 00:59 UTC on Dec 07, associated with Catania sunspot group 8 (NOAA AR 3153). Catania sunspot groups 11 and 12 (NOAA ARs 3156 and 3158) were inactive. Catania sunspot groups 8, 9 and 13 (NOAA ARs 3153, 3155 and 3157) produced only low-level C-class flares in the last day. Catania sunspot group 14 (NOAA ARs 3159 and 3160) is rotating into the disk, it has simple magnetic configuration. As there are no complex active regions observed on the visible side of the solar disk, solar flaring activity is expected to remain at low levels, with C-class flares likely and a chance for M-class flares.
Three Day Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
(as of 2200Z on 07 Dec 2014)
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec, 10 Dec).
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Dec), quiet to active levels on day two (09 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (10 Dec).
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
05 December - 31 December 2022
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares are possible on 05-13 Dec and 18-31 Dec due to current and returning M-class producing regions.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be reach high levels on 05-08 Dec and 24-31 Dec due to CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 07-09 Dec, 17-18 Dec and 22-31 Dec with G1 (Minor) storm levels expected on 22 Dec and 25-28 Dec due to recurrent CH HSS effects.
Data and images courtesy of IPS Australia, NOAA, NASA, SWPC, SIDC
Layout, analysis, commentary, and certain forecasts and content is Copyright, 2022, Tomas David Hood (NW7US), all rights reserved.
No part, except for the space weather 'banners', may be copied without express permission.